IT’S NOW more than two months since most of the UK voted to leave the EU, and although we have a new Prime Minister whom no one voted for, who swears that Brexit means Brexit, no one is any closer to discovering what Brexit actually means.
Theresa May would have been better off saying that Brexit means whoop-whoop-wang-ptang-kssssssh for all the semantic content of her Brexit means Brexit, soundbite.
Actually saying that Brexit means whoop-whoop-wang-ptang-ksssssh would give us a lot more clarity than we’ve currently got, as it’s the sound made by a rusty old 28K modem. We had those back in the days when you had to watch a picture slowly download one line at a time and you could go and make dinner in the time it took to view a photie of a cute cat LOL’ing at Britain’s pathetic excuse for a parliament.
That would give us a far better idea than we’ve currently got about the speed at which Westminster’s Brexit plans are going off the rails. Although, it’s unfair to claim that the Conservatives’ Brexit plans have gone off the rails because there were never any rails to begin with. Nor indeed any plan.
Our Conservative overlords aren’t in any hurry to push the big red self-destruct Brexit button because once the consequences of the UK’s exit from the European Union begin to bite the effects on the British economy will be even more catastrophic than the Labour party’s attempts to hold a leadership election.
If, as the Brexiteers claimed, the UK’s exit from the EU would only lead to a sunny upland of economic opportunities and job creation, the government would be falling over itself to get the process underway so that it could reap the benefits from a grateful populace at the next General Election. Instead they’re putting it off for as long as possible in the vague hope that something else might come along and save them from the entire sorry disaster that’s about to befall us.
This makes the current UK government probably the only one in the world that’s hoping for a victory by Donald Trump in the US presidential elections. If he wins in November then he’ll start WW3 after someone makes a rude comment about him on Twitter and the resultant post-apocalyptic wasteland is about the only scenario that could possibly be worse than the consequences of Brexit.
One of the many difficulties is that the UK only has a couple of dozen trade negotiators but it’s going to need hundreds in order to negotiate all the trade deals that the country is going to need once it’s outside the EU.
Having fought a nasty campaign to leave the EU based on restricting immigration, it now seems that the only way the UK can leave the EU is if it can persuade hundreds of experience trade negotiators to immigrate. Meanwhile the fate of Britain’s future trade deals is being left in the hands of Liam Fox, the Minister of State for Adam Werrity. If you’re on the left politically and you wanted out of the EU because you were unhappy with TTIP, any trade deal negotiated by the arch-right wing Liam is going to make TTIP look like a Jeremy Corbyn manifesto.
Even if these issues are solved, Brexit is going to be very messy because of the entrenched opposition of other European countries. They’re not disposed to do the UK any favours at all. For all that the Unionist press likes to crow that Spain would veto the EU membership of an independent Scotland, the truth is that Spain has never made an explicit threat to veto Scotland. Spain has in fact adopted the line that the situations of Catalonia and Scotland can’t be compared, but this doesn’t stop Scotland’s Unionists from claiming that Spain will veto Scotland because of Catalonia.
Sadly for those who would prefer to see Scotland taken out of the EU against its will and remain a part of the UK, in an irony to delight any aficionado of schadenfreude, Spain has indeed made an explicit veto threat. It’s just that they’ve threatened to veto the terms of the UK’s
Brexit if it includes Gibraltar. That threat was made by the Spanish foreign minister José Manuel García-Margallo in July.
Spain’s veto threat was followed in early August by a veto threat from Norway. Some in the Brexit camp have aired the possibility of the UK becoming a member of the European Free Trade Area on leaving the EU. This would preserve access to the European Single Market and free movement of people.
Unfortunately Norway is not at all keen on the idea of the big bullying blustering UK with a post Brexit economy based on money laundering for Russian oligarchs becoming a member of a cosy little club of small social democracies in which Norway is by far the largest and most influential.
Although some opinion polls taken since the Brexit vote have shown a majority for Scottish independence, we can’t expect any substantial movement in polling figures until the Brexit button has been pushed and the negative effects start to bite. Once there is some clarity about what Brexit means, we’re likely to realise that the light at the end of the Brexit tunnel only tells us that we’re about to be flattened by an on-coming train.
Both the EU and the UK government have ruled out the possibility of Scotland remaining a part of the EU while remaining a part of the UK. Our only option is to opt for another independence referendum and to remain an EU member in our own right. There’s a massive amount of goodwill in Europe towards Scotland right now.
Even that supposed Señor Veto in the Spanish government spoke sympathetically recently about a Scotland that is being forced into another independence referendum due to a Conservative party that has come under the influence of the extremists of UKIP.
In a TV interview a few weeks ago, José Manuel García-Margallo said that he expected the UK to return to England’s 16th century frontiers within four to five years and that Scotland would seek independence in order to retain its EU membership.
When even the supposedly most entrenched opponent of Scotland in the EU speaks sympathetically about Scottish EU membership, the end of the UK isn’t far away. The main reason the Conservatives are delaying pressing the Brexit button is because after they push it there will be no Britain left to Brexit.
Scottish independence has never been closer.